There is an unfortunate tendency for many governments to spend their treasure on planning and building for the last war. Let's take a look at examples from both sides of World War II in the Pacific, and then speculate a bit on what may be happening today.
(I love having a blog because it allows me to share some of my obscure interests with a couple of strangers. I also worry sometimes: what will the world do without my completely unique, ill-advised, and often unnecessary sense of humor? That day could come sooner than would be ideal, so make your plans accordingly.)
The people who run countries are too often unaware that they live in a new, later version of the world around them. It is no longer the version in which they grew up and were educated. This failure to understand the current threats faced by their countries leads to trouble.
The United States in 1941
The US did a wonderful job of code breaking in the years leading up to the war. We were getting the gist of all encrypted Japanese diplomatic traffic, to the degree that Washington often knew about something that the Japanese left hand was doing before they had notified the Japanese right hand. This information was shared with the Brits and the Nationalist Chinese. Washington knew all about the bad-faith negotiations being carried out by the Japanese ambassador, having read every bit of correspondence between them and the ministries in Tokyo. They knew in great detail about the Japanese preparations for war during all of November, 1941. They knew about the planned unannounced attacks that were coming. Thailand, British Malaya, the Dutch East Indies, the Philippines, and probably Burma. They didn't know exactly where, but they knew the date and time! All of that was gleaned from diplomatic traffic.
What they did not know was the main target. That had been subject to strict radio silence and the highest level of secrecy. No one but the admirals and the ship captains knew why those ships had been gathered, and where they were going. Washington could not yet read encrypted Japanese Navy traffic, so even vague clues were missing. That, however, is not the failure.
Knowing the date and time of a general attack, you would think that all American Pacific bases would be on a war alert. Including Pearl Harbor in Hawaii. The great failure came in assuming that an air attack on Pearl Harbor was absolutely out of the question, because it was impossible. They knew the range and capabilities of the Japanese carriers and planes, but they did not believe, could not believe, that it could be done. The Japanese had no high-speed fleet oilers; they had no experience refueling at sea; there were no bases along the way to assist; it was clearly impossible.
They learned the hard way that determination still counts for something in war.
It worked out fine, though. One often hears that Washington intentionally allowed the Japanese to strike first, and that turns out to be true. Public opinion in America was strongly against getting involved in any of these wars as a participant. Washington could not be seen to actively initiate hostilities. They were expecting an attack on the Philippines, hoping that American public opinion would say okay to subsequent involvement. In the event, the “day of infamy” at Pearl Harbor turned American public opinion on a dime from isolationism to murderous rage.
Churchill, no doubt, thought that the Pearl Harbor attack worked perfectly. Within a few days, Hitler declared war on the United States, making reference to the Tripartite Agreement. The reasons for this unnecessary placement of Germany's neck in the noose are known only to Hitler and God, and even God was probably shaking his hoary head at the stupidity of it. Me, I tend to blame it on the meth.
Japan in 1941
You know, I'm just going to let this one go. The military was in charge of Japan for five, or ten, or fifteen years, depending on who's counting, and they made so many mistakes that addressing them turns into a giant game of Whack-A-Mole where one kid with a hammer faces a board with one hundred holes in it.
Today's Outdated Thinking
America has the largest “defense” budget in the world. We seem to be spending more and more and getting less and less for our money. Whole categories of ships that don't work properly. That Goddamned F-35. Light infantry weapons that troops complain about, and expensive replacement weapons that are immediately unpopular.
We've got a lot of giant aircraft carriers, and lots more in the pipeline. Probably not enough escort ships. Quite a few nice planes, and quite a few that are getting a bit long in the tooth. It all looks impressive, but I worry about all of them being easy targets for hackers.
We're trying to stay prepared for our most recent ground wars, which is always silly. We are also maintaining a cold-war posture thirty years after the fact, and that is turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy. In the meantime, Russia is already effortlessly defeating our highest level of computer systems, often just to look around, sometimes just to show us that they can, and always leaving back-doors so they can return anytime that they feel like it.
This does not instill confidence.
Remember a few years ago when in the space of six months or so several United States Navy ships underwent strange navigational errors. I think one ran aground on a clearly charted shoal and the other two collided with commercial ships. I haven't heard of any incidents since. Why, it was almost like someone was testing a remote computer navigation hacking tool.
This falling behind on the science curve gets exponentially worse when you leave Earth's atmosphere. All of our ships and missiles and planes, and tanks for that matter, rely for location on America's global GPS satellite system. Another satellite network is used for communication. The thought that some Elliot* in China could take those systems off line if he was told to frightens me.
Nanotechnology is the stuff of nightmares. Robotics? CBN warfare? Autonomous drones? Thousands of autonomous drones in a flock of some kind? What would people do if they had to live with no electricity and no telephone and no wi-fi for six months? Want to find out? Neither do I.
I hope that some incorruptible people of genuine high intelligence are working on these problems, and making plans based upon the potential threats as they exist in our present day. My greatest fear is that everyone in charge is more focused on their offshore accounts than they are on the numerous countries that wish to do us harm.
Thanks for listening! I needed a break from worrying about COVID-19.
*An “Elliot,” this is a reference to Mr. Robot. Too obscure?
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